If you look at the force ratios in men and equipment between Ukraine and Russia, for most of the war it has been in favor of Russia. The reason it was a stalemate to start was because Russia used a very low footprint force on the misleading premise that Ukraine was going to simply collapse. So initially the force ratio should have actually favoured ukraine. This changed over time and in particular the ratio of indirect fire weapons and other hard assets on the front has always skewed towards Russia.
I wouldn't be surprised if Ukraine is losing badly. It should be obvious from the morale of the country and the fact that they are literally (not just a meme) running out of men to hold the frontline together. This is why the Trump peace initiative is happening now, they want to cut and run before the Ukranian army falls apart and the country has such gaps that NATO would feel forced to step in officially.
Anyways, total Russian victory and it's time to admit to it. The Europeans created this scenario and then want to play dumb about why it happened. And agent Z is just as bad, since his reputation is staked on security guarantees and continuing the war to reclaim territory. Both impossible wishes. He has caused more people to die by refusing to peace several years ago than any single person in this conflict.