https://www.axios.com/2025/11/20/republicans-trump-maga-2026-recent-polls
The problem is that polling is looking bad and the left is energized and starting to win local elections again. Probably it is a combination of the economy, ICE/illegal raids galvanizing left coalitions, and fears of unrest causing moderates to flee the republicans. Obviously the fighting over Israel on the right doesn't much help.
I was thinking about this, It may be that the American system is too fractured to allow any big changes short of progressive decay to happen without alienating various sectors of society. So every move essentially upsets some demographic and the margins to keep power are too slim. Moreover, this then creates the perception of public disorder which almost always causes lack of faith in the government.
In that case, it would be more akin to revolutionary conditions. Eventually one party will have to rule without consent and rely on their 30% margin of approval to do so.